As Nigeria prepares for the 2027 general election, internal disarray continues to weaken the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), even as its leaders openly hope for a self-inflicted crisis within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to regain political relevance.
Last week, the PDP suffered another significant blow with the defection of three senators from Kebbi State—Adamu Aliero (Kebbi Central), Yahaya Abdullahi (Kebbi North), and Garba Maidoki (Kebbi South)—to the APC. Their departure comes on the heels of mass defections in Delta State, where Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, former Vice-Presidential candidate Ifeanyi Okowa, and other federal and state lawmakers abandoned the PDP for the ruling party.
This exodus has intensified concerns about the PDP’s ability to remain a viable opposition force. Yet, instead of tackling the root causes of its internal crisis, some leaders within the party are banking on what they describe as an impending implosion of the APC.
Former Governor of Jigawa State and PDP stalwart Sule Lamido stirred the conversation at a recent state congress in Dutse, Jigawa, declaring that the APC would soon fragment and that defectors would eventually return to the PDP.
“All those who left the PDP will return… because very soon, the APC will burst and split into factions,” Lamido stated confidently.
Echoing this sentiment, former PDP National Publicity Secretary Kola Ologbondiyan told Channels Television that the APC was headed for collapse due to its internal divisions. He cited historical tensions between factions from the CPC and ACN—the legacy parties that formed the APC—as a ticking time bomb.
Despite such predictions, political analysts have advised that relying on the disintegration of a rival party is not a viable strategy. The APC, they argue, has repeatedly defied expectations since its formation in 2013, maintaining cohesion in the face of ideological diversity.
A recent example includes the rumored dissatisfaction among members of the defunct CPC bloc, who allegedly felt sidelined in President Bola Tinubu’s administration. Yet, key CPC figures quickly dispelled the notion of a breakaway. In a communiqué signed by 23 prominent members, including former Nasarawa Governor Tanko Al-Makura and ex-Minister Adamu Adamu, the bloc reaffirmed its loyalty to the APC.
“The misleading narratives suggesting defection among CPC stakeholders are false and mischievous,” the statement read.
APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje also fired back at the PDP’s predictions, stating the party is growing stronger and predicting the opposition’s downfall by 2025. He described Lamido’s claims as “baseless” and urged PDP leaders to focus on resolving their own internal issues.
Veteran APC member Osita Okechukwu also dismissed the idea of an APC implosion, stressing that the party has continued to inspire hope among Nigerians through developmental policies and regional initiatives. He said the PDP is projecting its own troubles onto the ruling party instead of conducting an honest self-assessment.
“Assumption is the mother of all mistakes,” Okechukwu said. “What PDP is doing now is exactly that—they’re living on assumption.”
He traced PDP’s problems to deep-rooted trust issues and miscalculations, particularly during the 2023 presidential primaries when the party opted against zoning its ticket to the South. That decision, he argued, alienated core support bases like the South East, leading to a loss of trust and mass defections.
The PDP has also faced internal unrest in the South East, where key figures such as Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah, former Senate President Adolphus Wabara, and ex-governor Sam Egwu recently met in Enugu to express dissatisfaction with the party and hint at possible exit plans.
As defections mount and key members signal disillusionment, observers say the PDP must abandon reliance on external party crises and begin sincere introspection. Without structural reforms, reconciliation, and a coherent strategy, the party risks further fragmentation in the lead-up to the 2027 elections.
For now, the APC appears to be weathering its internal challenges with strategic diplomacy, while the PDP grapples with an existential crisis—one that no implosion of a rival party can resolve.
