Despite President Bola Tinubu’s early endorsement for a second term by the All Progressives Congress (APC) at its recent National Summit in Abuja, unresolved tensions within the ruling party suggest a turbulent road to 2027. While the public show of unity signaled consolidation at the top, internal party dynamics and mounting public dissatisfaction raise questions about the APC’s long-term stability and electoral prospects.
The APC’s rising influence, boosted by a wave of defections from key opposition parties, including federal lawmakers and political heavyweights, has fueled fears of a creeping one-party state. Notable among these are hints of realignment from Akwa Ibom State Governor Umo Eno and other figures previously aligned with the PDP and NNPP. Although high-profile gubernatorial defections have yet to materialize, the party’s momentum appears geared toward building a formidable national coalition for 2027.
But critics argue that such elite-driven consolidation could marginalize voters. Analysts warn that top-down endorsements, like the one led by the Progressive Governors’ Forum and supported by National Assembly leaders, may sideline party members and voters alike—undermining internal democracy and transparency.
APC National Chairman, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, used the summit to highlight the party’s expansion under his leadership, citing off-cycle victories, widespread defections, and new party initiatives such as the Progressive Institute and a digital membership database. However, internal discontent over his emergence—particularly from the North Central zone—and questions about his legitimacy still persist.
The summit may have bolstered Ganduje’s standing, but it also exposed growing factionalism within the APC. Discontent simmers among long-standing party loyalists concerned about the preferential treatment of influential defectors and the lack of clarity on zoning arrangements ahead of the 2027 polls.
While the APC’s outward appearance reflects strength, internal tensions are mounting. Power blocs within the party are becoming increasingly restless, especially with talk of automatic tickets for incumbents and defectors. Many local party leaders fear being sidelined in favour of newcomers, potentially setting the stage for parallel primaries and rebellion in battleground states like Kano, Delta, and Rivers.
Some Northern stakeholders have begun pushing back against Tinubu’s second-term endorsement, reigniting debates over zoning and rotational leadership. Simultaneously, members from the South-East continue to express frustration over being marginalised in key party structures.
Even as the APC celebrates its political victories, economic hardship and insecurity continue to erode public trust. The removal of fuel subsidies, naira devaluation, and spiraling inflation have deepened discontent among civil servants, low-income earners, and urban youth. Critics argue that unless the Tinubu administration achieves tangible improvements by 2026, the party risks electoral backlash.
Opposition figures like Peter Obi’s spokesman, Tanko Yinusa, and former PDP Vice Chairman Eddy Olafeso, caution that mass disillusionment could translate into a formidable youth-led electoral movement. The Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) and African Democratic Congress (ADC) have also warned that early politicking by the APC ignores the economic realities Nigerians face daily.
Ganduje and other APC officials defend their record, pointing to bold reforms like fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and the launch of palliative measures. These include increased allocations to states, a new N70,000 minimum wage, cash transfers to vulnerable households, and the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative. They also tout ongoing infrastructure projects, particularly in rail transport, as part of Tinubu’s long-term vision.
Despite these efforts, the party’s critics remain unconvinced. According to CUPP, Tinubu’s early endorsement gives a false impression of popular support and risks deepening the disconnect between the government and the electorate.
As the APC charts its course toward 2027, it must navigate a complex mix of political realignments, internal discord, economic pressures, and public scrutiny. While early endorsements and strategic defections may secure short-term gains, the party’s long-term success will hinge on its ability to deliver tangible governance outcomes and uphold internal democratic values. Without these, the current show of unity may prove to be superficial—masking deeper fractures that could erupt as the next general election approaches.
