The race for the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State is intensifying, with mounting calls for a shift in power from the dominant Ibadan zone. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, Ibadan indigenes have largely controlled the state’s top seat, with the exception of the late Adebayo Alao-Akala from Ogbomoso. Now, strong agitation from other zones—including Oke-Ogun, Oyo, Ibarapa, and Ogbomoso—is gaining momentum and could reshape the state’s political landscape.
These calls, initially seen as fringe sentiments, have now gained broad grassroots and elite support, including from within Ibadan itself. Stakeholders are pushing for power rotation based on equity and fair representation, arguing that the other zones have only been limited to producing deputies, speakers, or ministers over the years.
Governor Seyi Makinde, a key political force in Oyo PDP, is central to the unfolding drama. While he has not publicly endorsed a successor, reports suggest he favours a younger candidate, ideally under 50, to continue his legacy. This has stirred unease among party loyalists, especially those who feel sidelined since Makinde’s re-election in 2023. Insiders reveal that several of the governor’s former allies from his initial coalition now feel excluded and are considering their political future.
Among potential successors, names such as Chief of Staff Segun Ogunwuyi (Ogbomoso), Deputy Governor Bayo Lawal (Oke-Ogun), and Speaker of the House Adebo Ogundoyin (Ibarapa) have surfaced. Makinde is believed to be leaning toward a non-Ibadan technocrat or loyalist who would maintain his policy direction and provide generational continuity. However, this stance, particularly the age cap, has triggered friction within the PDP and may weaken the party if not carefully managed.
While the PDP navigates its internal crisis, the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) remains in disarray. Despite holding the presidency and several federal appointments, Oyo APC continues to struggle with infighting. The divisions between Teslim Folarin loyalists and other factions, including returning figures like Adebayo Shittu and Sunday Dare, have prevented the party from forming a unified strategy for 2027.
The lack of consensus and factional control has left APC without a clear leader or direction. Efforts by party elders, including former Osun State Governor Bisi Akande, to reconcile warring factions have so far yielded little progress. Some members outside the Ibadan bloc are also opposed to the idea of presenting another Ibadan candidate, complicating efforts to build a united front.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party insists it is poised to offer a credible alternative in 2027. State chairman Atayese Sodiq said the party would present candidates capable of challenging the dominance of PDP and APC. However, political analysts argue that third-party chances remain slim. The Labour Party and others, such as the YPP and SDP, lack strong grassroots structures, adequate funding, and influential candidates.
A post-election survey by INEC revealed that over 42 percent of young voters in Oyo State who participated in the February 2023 presidential election did not return to vote in the March governorship poll, highlighting growing political disengagement at the local level.
Experts have mixed views on the viability of smaller parties. While some, like Prof. Adewale Yagboyaju of the University of Ibadan, believe protest votes and changing sentiments could favour fringe parties, others are more sceptical. Dr. Idowu Johnson and Dr. Oluwagbemiro Adedina stress that without financial muscle and a broad coalition, smaller parties have limited prospects.
As Oyo State moves closer to 2027, the political terrain is shifting. The governorship contest is evolving from a traditional Ibadan affair to a broader, multi-zonal contest rooted in equity and inclusion. Whether this awakening leads to a power shift remains uncertain, but the race is clearly more open and unpredictable than ever.
