At various points in Nigeria’s democratic journey, the idea of a “two-nation-in-one” has consistently emerged. One of the clearest expressions of this was during the 2021 meeting of Southern Governors at Lagos House, Marina. The governors collectively demanded a power shift to the South and banned open grazing, citing rising insecurity and farmer-herder conflicts. Their message was clear: political equity and security were vital for national stability.
Led by former Ondo State Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, the Southern Governors emphasised regional cooperation in economic and security matters. In a counter-response, Northern Governors met in Kaduna to discuss issues like healthcare and the almajirai system. That division—policy divergence along regional lines—has only deepened over time.
Under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the revised tax policy almost rekindled these North-South tensions before political interventions calmed the waters. Yet, beneath the surface, a fragile unity continues to be tested—especially now, as coalition talks intensify ahead of the 2027 elections.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar was the first to openly suggest an opposition coalition to challenge the APC and President Tinubu. However, the proposal struggled to gain momentum, largely due to suspicions about Atiku’s motives, especially after President Buhari’s eight-year tenure. Many questioned the fairness of another Northerner seeking power so soon, while others felt Peter Obi had been the more deserving candidate in 2023.
But the coalition idea found new energy when former Kaduna Governor Nasir el-Rufai publicly criticised Tinubu’s administration. El-Rufai, who played a key role in zoning the APC ticket to the South, insisted that justice demanded the South complete another four years. According to him, if Tinubu fails to deliver, Southerners should field a new candidate—and Northerners would back them to uphold the zoning arrangement.
His stance was a clear divergence from Atiku’s. While Atiku had previously argued that “the Northerner needs someone from the North,” el-Rufai positioned himself as a defender of equity and national cohesion. That contrast has shaped current coalition dynamics.
Still, neither man has full buy-in from the North. Critics say el-Rufai is calculating for a future presidential bid in 2031, while Atiku is urged to step aside for younger contenders. NNPP chieftain Buba Galadima dismissed el-Rufai’s influence, saying he can’t speak for the North.
Interestingly, Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a centrist voice, also urged Tinubu to step down in 2027 to make room for a younger, reform-minded generation. His open letter, published shortly after his resignation as a presidential adviser, called for a shift in political culture towards merit, unity, and progress.
Meanwhile, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, Peter Obi’s 2023 running mate, openly challenged Tinubu’s legitimacy and urged him not to seek re-election. However, others like Dr Umar Ardo argue that the coalition shouldn’t focus on personalities or zones, but on restoring accountable leadership.
Even within the North, debates rage. Some argue that a single-term presidency risks destabilising governance, while others insist that Tinubu running again should not deter Southerners from producing other strong contenders.
This internal tension raises a critical question: What does the North really want?
Governor Uba Sani of Kaduna put it plainly. At a meeting of Northern Governors, he held the region’s leaders accountable for its backwardness, noting the failures in education, security, and economic development. Acknowledging past leadership errors, Sani’s comments underscored the need for a shift from power struggles to real governance.
Similarly, reflections on the region’s history—such as during the launch of a book on former military leader Ibrahim Babangida—highlighted how leadership from the North has often disrupted political progress.
Against this backdrop, analysts warn that any coalition formed with the sole aim of removing Tinubu risks repeating past failures. Instead, they argue, opposition forces must prioritise good governance, electoral credibility, and inclusive development.
Dr Baba-Ahmed reinforced this point on Channels TV, noting that despite early hopes, Tinubu’s administration has failed to improve governance. If ordinary Nigerians’ quality of life becomes the true benchmark, the coalition must move beyond opportunism and define a national agenda for change.
Only then can Nigeria move closer to a unified, equitable democracy—rather than a nation divided by ambition and old fault lines.
