As President Bola Tinubu positions himself for a formidable 2027 re-election campaign, his gaze has turned to Kano State — a political prize he failed to win in 2023. At the heart of this renewed strategy is the potential return of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, leader of the influential Kwankwasiyya Movement and former presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). But the path is riddled with internal conflicts, powerful egos, and strategic compromises.
Kano remains a political heavyweight with its sizable voter base. In the 2023 presidential election, Kwankwaso delivered a resounding 997,279 votes in the state, outperforming Tinubu’s 517,341. In the gubernatorial race, Kwankwaso’s protégé, Abba Kabir Yusuf, defeated the APC-backed candidate, signaling the grip the Kwankwasiyya movement still holds.
This electoral performance has not gone unnoticed by the presidency. Analysts believe Tinubu is determined to consolidate Kano in his column for 2027 and is willing to accommodate political shifts — even if it means reconciling with former adversaries.
The anticipated return of Kwankwaso has sparked questions over how Tinubu plans to manage powerful APC players like National Chairman Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje — once Kwankwaso’s political protégé turned bitter rival — and Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, who is also eyeing the Kano governorship.
Observers say Tinubu may consider offering high-profile appointments to both men and Kwankwaso to manage egos and retain balance. However, Kwankwaso’s possible elevation to Defence Minister and the resulting implications for Ganduje’s position could trigger fresh tensions within the party.
Ganduje publicly dismissed the NNPP as a “dead wood,” claiming its burial was imminent. Yet, insiders believe the APC chairman may be toeing the line of powerful Abuja interests, keeping the door ajar for Kwankwaso’s return despite their history of political hostility.
The exodus of several Kwankwasiyya loyalists — including Kawu Sumaila and Kabir Rurum — to the APC further suggests that high-level negotiations may already be underway. Whether these defections are strategic distancing from a weakening NNPP or early alignments with Kwankwaso’s eventual move remains unclear.
The possibility of Ganduje and Kwankwaso operating under the same party roof raises the specter of renewed rivalry. While some believe Tinubu might use Ganduje’s court cases to sideline him, others suggest the President may opt for a “balanced inclusion” of both figures in his cabinet to avoid political implosion in Kano.
A potential compromise could see Ganduje taking a ministerial role — such as Agriculture or Special Duties — while ceding party structure in Kano to Kwankwaso. This, however, could diminish Ganduje’s political influence and trigger resistance among loyalists.
Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, popularly known as Malia, has shown interest in contesting for Kano’s governorship. But with Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf likely to seek a second term, Tinubu may ask Jibrin to shelve his ambitions in exchange for continued influence in the Senate or elevation to Senate President.
Jibrin’s history of deferring ambitions, as seen in 2015 when Kwankwaso joined the APC, may repeat if a political settlement is reached.
Critics argue that reabsorbing Kwankwaso into the APC fold could backfire. According to Kano-based analyst Ahmad Mohammed, Kwankwaso’s dominance could eclipse existing APC leaders and reignite old tensions, especially if he attempts to exert full control over party structures.
Similarly, Prof. Kamilu Sani Fagge of Bayero University warns that defections driven by personal ambition may not translate to voter loyalty in 2027. He also points to Nigeria’s economic challenges as a more pressing concern for voters.
Whether or not Kwankwaso returns to the APC, President Tinubu faces a delicate balancing act in Kano. His ability to manage the ambitions of Ganduje, Kwankwaso, and Jibrin while maintaining internal party cohesion may determine not just his electoral success in 2027, but the post-election stability of the APC itself.
For now, speculation continues. But as Tinubu eyes Kano’s political fortress, every move — from cabinet appointments to party congresses — will carry consequences that stretch far beyond 2027.
