Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has said that the political dynamics that helped Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi secure significant votes in the 2023 general election are unlikely to play out the same way in 2027.
Speaking during an interview on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics, Keyamo attributed Obi’s 2023 performance to a unique combination of three demographic factors: religious sentiment, ethnic loyalty, and youth activism. According to him, those conditions were temporary and will not hold sway in the next election cycle.
“Three demographic factors delivered Peter Obi in 2023, but the three will collapse,” Keyamo stated. He pointed out that Obi emerged as the only major Christian candidate in a field where other top contenders were Muslims, leading many Christian voters to rally around him.
He also noted that regional sentiment played a role. “The South-East felt cheated, so the South-East went to one point because of the Igbo man,” he said, highlighting the emotional response among Igbo voters who supported Obi.
The third factor, according to the minister, was the enthusiasm of young voters—popularly called the “Obidients”—who were drawn to Obi’s younger profile and anti-establishment appeal in contrast to older, mainstream candidates.
However, Keyamo, a member of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), dismissed the idea that an alliance between Obi and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar could threaten the APC’s dominance in 2027. “This so-called ADC, in 2027, what they are working on is to bring Peter Obi and Atiku together to join those numbers and beat our over eight million votes. Let me tell you why it is wrong,” he said.
He argued that Obi lacked political structures in northern Nigeria, a region where the APC continues to maintain strong influence through its state governors and grassroots networks.
“If you put Peter Obi this time as president, he cannot penetrate the north. We have our structures in the north,” Keyamo said, insisting that the APC retains a numerical advantage across key voting blocs.
Despite his critique, the minister acknowledged that the presence of strong opposition forces helps keep the ruling party accountable. “I like what is happening; they are putting us on our toes; it is going to make us work harder, but the numbers are not looking good for them,” he added.
